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在全球气候变化与海平面上升的双重影响下，沿海高潮洪水事件的频次与强度显著增加，已成为制约沿海地区可持续发展的常态化气候风险。传统长期趋势预估与高成本数值模型难以满足日尺度的精细预报需求，促使预报方法不断向概率化、业务化方向演进。本文系统综述了沿海高潮洪水概率预报模型的研究进展，重点分析了以美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA）研发的概率统计模型为代表的国际前沿技术，进一步对比了国内外在该领域的研究现状与面临的差距和挑战。最后，基于我国沿海环境的复杂性与灾害风险特征，在展望中提出应通过发展数值-统计混合预报系统、构建标准化验证数据集、研发区域适配模型等途径，提升我国沿海高潮洪水预报能力与防灾减灾水平。
Abstract：Driven by global climate change and sea level rise, coastal high tide flooding events have increased significantly in both frequency and intensity, evolving into a recurrent climate risk that constrains the sustainable development of coastal regions. Traditional long-term trend projections and computationally expensive numerical models struggle to meet the demands of operational, daily-scale refined forecasting, thereby propelling the evolution of forecasting methods towards probabilistic and operational frameworks. This paper systematically reviews the research progress in probabilistic forecasting models for coastal high tide flooding, with a focused analysis of cutting-edge international technologies represented by the probabilistic-statistical model developed by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA). It further compares the current state of research and identifies gaps and challenges faced domestically and internationally in this field. Finally, considering the complexity of China's coastal environment and its disaster risk profile, the paper proposes future pathways—such as developing numerical-statistical hybrid forecasting systems, constructing standardized validation datasets, and creating regionally adapted models—to enhance China's coastal high tide flooding forecasting capabilities and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TV87;P731.34
引用信息:
[1]吕江华,潘嵩,邓丽静,等.沿海高潮洪水概率预报模型研究进展与展望[J].海洋信息技术与应用,2026,41(02):65-73.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划重点专项（2022YFC3105105）
2025-11-24
2025
2026-02-26
2026
2026-02-26
1
2026-05-15
2026-05-15